We seek to address the limitations of existing datasets in this area. Many such datasets lack a coherent traffic network graph to describe the relationship between sensors.

However, existing methods assume a reliable and unbiased forecasting environment, which isnot always available inthe wild. Inthis work, we investigate the vulnerability ofspatiotemporal trafficforecasting models andpropose apractical adversarial spatiotemporal attack framework.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

Machine learning based traffic forecasting models leverage sophisticated spatiotemporal auto-correlations to provide accurate predictions of city-wide traffic states. However, existing methods assume a reliable and unbiased forecasting environment, which is not always available in the wild. In this work, we investigate the vulnerability of spatiotemporal traffic forecasting models and propose a practical adversarial spatiotemporal attack framework. Specifically, instead of simultaneously attacking all geo-distributed data sources, an iterative gradient guided node saliency method is proposed to identify the time-dependent set of victim nodes. Furthermore, we devise a spatiotemporal gradient descent based scheme to generate real-valued adversarial traffic states under a perturbation constraint.Meanwhile, we theoretically demonstrate the worst performance bound of adversarial traffic forecasting attacks. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that the proposed two-step framework achieves up to 67.8% performance degradation on various advanced spatiotemporal forecasting models. Remarkably, we also show that adversarial training with our proposed attacks can significantly improve the robustness of spatiotemporal traffic forecasting models.

Urban rail transit often operates with high service frequencies to serve heavy passenger demand during rush hours. Such operations can be delayed by two types of congestion: train congestion and passenger congestion, both of which interact with each other. This delay is problematic for many transit systems, since it can be amplified due to the interaction. However, there are no tractable models describing them; and it makes difficult to analyze management strategies of congested transit systems in general and tractable ways. To fill this gap, this article proposes simple yet physical and dynamic model of urban rail transit. First, a fundamental diagram of transit system (i.e., theoretical relation among train-flow, train-density, and passenger-flow) is analytically derived considering the aforementioned physical interaction. Then, a macroscopic model of transit system for dynamic transit assignment is developed based on the fundamental diagram. Finally, accuracy of the macroscopic model is investigated by comparing to microscopic simulation. The proposed models would be useful for mathematical analysis on management strategies of urban rail transit systems, in a similar way that the macroscopic fundamental diagram of urban traffic did.

Fine-grained traffic management and prediction are fundamental to key applications such as autonomous driving, lane change guidance, and traffic signal control. However, obtaining lane-level traffic data has become a critical bottleneck for data-driven models due to limitations in the types and number of sensors and issues with the accuracy of tracking algorithms. To address this, we propose the Fine-grained Road Traffic Inference (FRTI) task, which aims to generate more detailed lane-level traffic information using limited road data, providing a more energy-efficient and cost-effective solution for precise traffic management. This task is abstracted as the first scene of the spatio-temporal graph node generation problem. We designed a two-stage framework--RoadDiff--to solve the FRTI task. solve the FRTI task. This framework leverages the Road-Lane Correlation Autoencoder-Decoder and the Lane Diffusion Module to fully utilize the limited spatio-temporal dependencies and distribution relationships of road data to accurately infer fine-grained lane traffic states. Based on existing research, we designed several baseline models with the potential to solve the FRTI task and conducted extensive experiments on six datasets representing different road conditions to validate the effectiveness of the RoadDiff model in addressing the FRTI task. The relevant datasets and code are available at https://github.com/ShuhaoLii/RoadDiff.

Appropriate traffic state representation is crucial for learning traffic signal control policies. However, most of the current traffic state representations are heuristically designed, with insufficient theoretical support. In this paper, we (1) develop a flexible, efficient, and theoretically grounded method, namely generalized phase pressure (G2P) control, which takes only simple lane features into consideration to decide which phase to be actuated; 2) extend the pressure control theory to a general form for multi-homogeneous-lane road networks based on queueing theory; (3) design a new traffic state representation based on the generalized phase state features from G2P control; and 4) develop a reinforcement learning (RL)-based algorithm template named G2P-XLight, and two RL algorithms, G2P-MPLight and G2P-CoLight, by combining the generalized phase state representation with MPLight and CoLight, two well-performed RL methods for learning traffic signal control policies. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that G2P control outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) heuristic method in the transportation field and other recent human-designed heuristic methods; and that the newly proposed G2P-XLight significantly outperforms SOTA learning-based approaches. Our code is available online.

We consider the traffic control problem of dynamic routing over parallel servers, which arises in a variety of engineering systems such as transportation and data transmission. We propose a semi-gradient, on-policy algorithm that learns an approximate optimal routing policy. The algorithm uses generic basis functions with flexible weights to approximate the value function across the unbounded state space. Consequently, the training process lacks Lipschitz continuity of the gradient, boundedness of the temporal-difference error, and a prior guarantee on ergodicity, which are the standard prerequisites in existing literature on reinforcement learning theory. To address this, we combine a Lyapunov approach and an ordinary differential equation-based method to jointly characterize the behavior of traffic state and approximation weights. Our theoretical analysis proves that the training scheme guarantees traffic state stability and ensures almost surely convergence of the weights to the approximate optimum. We also demonstrate via simulations that our algorithm attains significantly faster convergence than neural network-based methods with an insignificant approximation error.

Mining spatio-temporal correlation patterns for traffic prediction is a well-studied field. However, most approaches are based on the assumption of the availability of and accessibility to a sufficiently dense data source, which is rather the rare case in reality. Traffic sensors in road networks are generally highly sparse in their distribution: fleet-based traffic sensing is sparse in space but also sparse in time. There are also other traffic application, besides road traffic, like moving objects in the marine space, where observations are sparsely and arbitrarily distributed in space. In this paper, we tackle the problem of traffic prediction on sparse and spatially irregular and non-deterministic traffic observations. We draw a border between imputations and this work as we consider high sparsity rates and no fixed sensor locations. We advance correlation mining methods with a Sparse Unstructured Spatio Temporal Reconstruction (SUSTeR) framework that reconstructs traffic states from sparse non-stationary observations. For the prediction the framework creates a hidden context traffic state which is enriched in a residual fashion with each observation. Such an assimilated hidden traffic state can be used by existing traffic prediction methods to predict future traffic states. We query these states with query locations from the spatial domain.